Week of December 29, 2025 in Review

Pending Home Sales and home price gains came in stronger than expected, while unemployment claims fell below forecasts. Here’s a look at the key highlights.

  • Pending Home Sales Jump in November
  • Home Prices Show Signs of Renewed Momentum
  • Unemployment Claims Dip on Seasonal and Timing Effects
  • Family Hack of the Week
  • What to Look for This Week
  • Technical Picture

Pending Home Sales Jump in November

Pending Home Sales rose 3.3% from October to November, beating expectations and reaching their strongest level in nearly three years, according to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). Contract signings on existing homes were also up 2.6% compared to a year earlier.

What’s the bottom line? Because pending sales typically lead closings by one to two months, November’s increase points to stronger transaction activity ahead. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that improving affordability – driven by lower mortgage rates, wage growth outpacing home prices, and greater inventory – has helped draw more buyers back into the market.

Home Prices Show Signs of Renewed Momentum

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index – one of the most widely followed gauges of U.S. home values – showed a 0.2% monthly decline from September to October before seasonal adjustments, but a 0.4% increase after adjusting for seasonality. Nationally, prices are still 1.4% higher than a year ago, a slight increase from September’s 1.3% annual gain.

The FHFA Index, which tracks homes financed with conventional mortgages and excludes cash and jumbo purchases, reported seasonally adjusted prices also rose 0.4% month-to-month. Year over year, prices were up a somewhat stronger 1.7%.

What’s the bottom line? Home price growth is showing early signs of renewed momentum: Case-Shiller recorded its first acceleration in annual appreciation since January. If buyer demand continues to improve – as indicated by stronger-than-expected Pending Home Sales – home price appreciation could continue to pick up in the months ahead.

Unemployment Claims Dip on Seasonal and Timing Effects

Initial jobless claims fell by 16,000 in the latest week, with 199,000 people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. Continuing claims – which measure those still receiving benefits – also declined, dropping by 47,000 to 1.866 million.

What’s the bottom line? First-time claims remain low, likely reflecting seasonal patterns. Employers often delay layoffs ahead of the holidays, and the Christmas holiday itself may have reduced filings as people postponed claims due to travel.

Continuing claims, while elevated for much of the year, may ease as benefit eligibility expires. Most states offer up to 26 weeks of unemployment benefits, and a surge in initial claims last June suggests many recipients may now be reaching the end of that window.

Family Hack of the Week

Celebrate National Apricot Day on January 9 with these Apricot Oat Bars from Food Network. This healthy, delicious recipe makes 24 bars and is perfect for a grab-and-go breakfast or afternoon snack.

Preheat your oven to 350 degrees Fahrenheit and position a rack in the center. Lightly spray a 9x13x2-inch baking dish with vegetable oil cooking spray, line it with parchment paper, then spray the parchment as well and set aside.

In a small bowl, combine 1 13-ounce jar of apricot jam (about 1 1/4 cups) with 8 dried apricots chopped into 1/4-inch pieces, then set the mixture aside. In a large bowl, whisk together 1 3/4 cups all-purpose flour, 1 packed cup light brown sugar, 1 teaspoon cinnamon, 3/4 teaspoon salt, and 3/4 teaspoon baking soda. Stir in 1 3/4 cups old-fashioned oats and 1 cup coarsely chopped walnuts. Add 2 sticks of melted unsalted butter, 1 egg, and 1 teaspoon vanilla, stirring until fully combined.

Press half of the crust mixture evenly into the prepared pan using a fork. Spread the apricot filling over the crust, leaving a 1/2-inch border around the edges. Sprinkle the remaining crust mixture over the filling and gently press to flatten.

Bake for 30 to 35 minutes, or until lightly golden. Let cool for one hour before cutting into bars. Store in an airtight container for up to three days.

What to Look for This Week

A busy week of labor market updates begins Wednesday with job openings data and ADP private payroll figures. On Thursday, the focus shifts to the latest jobless claims, followed by Friday’s comprehensive employment report, which includes non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

Delayed new home construction data for September and October will also be released on Friday.

Technical Picture

Mortgage Bonds closed last week near the bottom of their range at the 99.59 floor, while the 10-year Treasury yield finished near the top of its range, just below the 4.20% ceiling.

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