Week of December 22, 2025 in Review

Delayed government data shows the economy grew faster than expected in Q3, while the gig economy continues to influence unemployment claims.

Here’s a look at the key highlights.

  • Q3 GDP Surges Past Forecasts
  • Claims Data Reflects Seasonal and Gig Economy Trends
  • Family Hack of the Week
  • What to Look for This Week
  • Technical Picture

Q3 GDP Surges Past Forecasts

After a delay caused by the government shutdown, the first estimate of third quarter 2025 GDP was released – and it exceeded expectations. The U.S. economy grew at a 4.3% annualized pace, well above the 3.3% forecast.

Growth also accelerated from 3.8% in Q2 and marked a sharp rebound from the 0.6% contraction in Q1. Through the first nine months of the year, the economy is now averaging 2.5% growth.

What’s the bottom line? GDP is a key measure of economic health, reflecting consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports. Consumer spending – the largest component – was especially strong last quarter, driven in part by a surge in electric vehicle purchases ahead of the EV tax credit expiration at the end of Q3.

Stronger exports and increased government spending also supported growth, helping offset weaker investment. In addition, a decline in imports – which subtract from GDP – provided a further boost to the overall figure.

Claims Data Reflects Seasonal and Gig Economy Trends

Initial Jobless Claims declined by 10,000 in the latest week, with 214,000 individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. Meanwhile, Continuing Claims – which track those still receiving benefits after an initial filing – increased by 38,000 to 1.923 million.

What’s the bottom line? First-time claims remain relatively low, likely reflecting seasonal factors such as employers holding off on layoffs ahead of the holidays, as well as the influence of the gig economy. A growing number of displaced workers are opting for contract or app-based work rather than filing for unemployment, as benefit levels often fall short of covering housing, living expenses and insurance.

At the same time, Continuing Claims remain elevated, hovering near four-year highs. This pattern often occurs when employers slow hiring, keeping people on benefits longer.

Family Hack of the Week

Start the new year on a sweet note with these quick and easy Cinnamon Rolls from Allrecipes. This delicious recipe yields 9 rolls.

Preheat the oven to 400 degrees Fahrenheit and brush an 8-inch square baking dish with 1 tablespoon melted butter. For the dough: Whisk together 2 cups all-purpose flour, 2 tablespoons sugar, 2 teaspoons baking powder, and 1 teaspoon kosher salt in a large bowl. Work in 3 tablespoons softened butter with your fingers until the pieces are about lentil-sized.

Add 2/3 cup whole milk and stir with a rubber spatula until a soft dough forms. Turn the dough onto a floured surface, roll it into a 10-inch square, and brush with 2 tablespoons melted butter.

For the filling: Mix 1/4 cup sugar, 1/4 cup light brown sugar, and 2 teaspoons cinnamon in a small bowl. Sprinkle 1 tablespoon of the mixture into the prepared baking dish, then spread the rest evenly over the dough.

Roll the dough into a log and cut into 9 one-inch rolls. Arrange them cut-side up in the baking dish and bake until puffed and lightly golden, about 20 to 25 minutes.

For the frosting: Beat together 1 cup confectioners’ sugar, 4 ounces cream cheese, 1/4 cup softened unsalted butter, and 1/2 teaspoon vanilla. Frost the rolls while still warm.

What to Look for This Week

The week begins with housing data, starting with Pending Home Sales on Monday and home price appreciation figures on Tuesday. Minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting are also due Tuesday, while the latest jobless claims follow on Wednesday. Markets will be closed on Thursday in observance of the New Year’s holiday.

Technical Picture

Mortgage Bonds ended last week near the top of their trading range, with dual support at the 25-day and 50-day Moving Averages and resistance at 99.88. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury closed the week near multiple support levels, including the 4.126% Fibonacci level and its 25-day and 50-day Moving Averages.

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